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Short answer: in September 2026, the median person who changed jobs saw pay grow 4.7% over the year, against 3.4% for people who stayed put (Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta). ADP’s payroll data tells the same story — base pay up 4.8% for job-changers in September 2026, 3.0% for job-stayers.
So why does every negotiation guide tell you to ask for 10–20%? Because the median and the target are measuring different things. The median includes lateral moves, people who switched for a shorter commute or a better manager, and people who didn’t negotiate at all. Your target should be built from where your pay sits against the market rate for the new role — and for anyone who is underpaid or stepping up in scope, 10–20% is a defensible ask, not a fantasy.
What the data actually says
Two independent trackers, updated within the last few weeks:
| Source | Job switchers / changers | Job stayers |
|---|---|---|
| Atlanta Fed Wage Growth Tracker, Sep 2026 (median) | 4.7% | 3.4% |
| ADP Pay Insights, Sep 2026 (base pay) | 4.8% | 3.0% |
| ADP Pay Insights, Sep 2026 (gross pay, incl. bonuses/tips) | 7.3% | 4.4% |
Three things worth knowing about these numbers:
- Base pay is the number that matters. The gross-pay gap looks bigger, but bonuses and tips don’t compound. Next year’s percentage raise, your employer’s retirement match, and any bonus calculated as a percentage of salary all ride on the base. Negotiate the base first.
- In real terms, staying is now a small real cut. With CPI inflation at 3.7% for the 12 months to September 2026 (BLS), the median stayer’s 3.4% growth is worth about −0.29% in purchasing power, and ADP’s 3.0% base-pay figure is about −0.7% in real terms. The median switcher’s 4.7% works out to about +0.96% real.
- The switching premium has narrowed. Switchers were gaining far more during the 2021–22 hiring boom. The gap is now about 1.3 points on the Atlanta Fed measure (4.7 vs 3.4), 1.8 on ADP base pay — which is exactly why the size of your individual move depends so much on your starting position.
Why you keep hearing “ask for 10–20%”
That advice isn’t invented — it’s just aimed at a different situation than the median switcher’s. Employers price a new hire against today’s market rate for the role. They price your annual raise against a budget set months earlier (employers budgeted an average of 3.5% total for 2026 — see our average raise percentage data). If your pay has drifted below the market rate for a few years — small raises, a skipped cycle, a promotion in title only — a new employer’s market-rate offer can easily land 10–20% above your current salary without them paying a cent over the going rate.
So the honest way to set your target is to work out which of these situations is yours:
What to ask for, by situation
These are negotiation targets — what to aim for given your circumstances — not averages of what everyone got.
| Your situation | Reasonable target | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Lateral move, same role, already paid at market rate | 5–10% | The median outcome is ~5%; getting above it takes a reason — a scarce skill, a competing offer, a hard-to-fill role. |
| Paid below market, or no real raise in 2+ years | 10–20% | You’re asking for a market correction plus a normal switch premium. Price the role, not your current salary. |
| Step up in scope or title (e.g. individual contributor to lead) | 15–25% | The offer should be priced to the new role’s band. For comparison, even internal promotions average 8.7% (Mercer) — an external move into a bigger role should beat that. |
| Changing field, or moving to a higher-cost area | Price the new market, ignore the % | A percentage of a salary from a different market is the wrong anchor. Run the numbers on a cost of living raise basis instead. |
If you’re not sure what an offer works out to as a percentage, run it through the raise percentage calculator — the percentage is what you compare against the table above, not the dollar figure alone.
The 5-year math on a $65,000 salary
A switch raise isn’t a one-year event. It resets the base that every future raise builds on. Here’s what different switch raises are worth, assuming the new salary replaces your next annual raise and both paths then grow at 3.5% a year (the 2026 employer budget average):
| Switch raise | New salary | Extra per month | Salary after 5 years | Extra earned over 5 years vs staying |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5% | $68,250 | $271 | $78,318 | $5,228 |
| 10% | $71,500 | $542 | $82,048 | $22,656 |
| 15% | $74,750 | $813 | $85,777 | $40,084 |
Staying put on the same assumptions gets you to $77,200 after five years. The gap between a 5% and a 10% switch — $17,428 in cumulative pay over five years — is why negotiating the offer matters more than negotiating most annual reviews. You can run your own numbers, including raises further out, with the Future Salary Calculator.
Don’t let the percentage hide what you’re giving up
A higher salary can still be a bad trade if the move resets things you’ve already earned. Before you accept, put a dollar figure on:
- A bonus you’re walking away from. Leaving before payout day usually means forfeiting it. Break-even is simple: a 5% raise on $65,000 pays $3,250 a year extra, so a forfeited $5,000 bonus takes about 18.5 months of the extra pay to replace. At a 10% raise ($6,500 a year), the same $5,000 is covered in about 9 months.
- Unvested retirement match or equity. Unvested money is part of your current pay. Add what you’d lose to the price of the move.
- A signing bonus offered instead of base salary. A one-off payment feels good and then it’s gone; base salary keeps paying every year and lifts every future increase. Our raise vs bonus breakdown shows how quickly a raise overtakes an equal-sized bonus.
- PTO, tenure and probation. Accrued leave banks, severance tenure and job security all restart at zero. That has a real value even if it’s hard to price exactly.
The clean way to weigh an actual offer is side by side, total package against total package — that’s what the Job Offer Comparison Calculator is for, and our guide to comparing two job offers walks through the non-salary items.
How to set your number
- Find the market band for the new role first — salary surveys, posted ranges (many states now require them in job ads), and people in the role. Your current salary is not the anchor; the band is.
- Pick your target from the table above based on your situation, and convert it to a dollar figure.
- Check the offer’s percentage with the pay raise calculator before you respond — a $4,000 offer sounds generous until you realise it’s 5% on a role the market prices 15% above your current job.
- Negotiate the base before the extras. Signing bonuses, extra leave and start dates are easier for employers to flex, which is exactly why they offer them first. Take them after the base is right, not instead of it. (If the offer process turns into a negotiation with your current employer instead, the scripts in how much of a raise to ask for apply almost word for word.)
What if your current employer counteroffers?
If your current employer matches or beats the new offer, compare the two total packages side by side — base salary first, then bonus, retirement match and the items you would be giving up listed above. A counteroffer that is mostly a one-off bonus is not the same as a higher base, because the base is what future raises build on. And check whether the counteroffer changes the reasons you started looking: if pay was only part of it, a match on salary alone may not fix the rest.
Common questions
The median job switcher’s pay grew 4.7% year over year in September 2026 (Atlanta Fed Wage Growth Tracker), compared with 3.4% for job stayers. ADP’s September 2026 payroll data shows base pay up 4.8% for job-changers and 3.0% for job-stayers. Individual negotiated moves — especially corrections from below-market pay — regularly land well above these medians.
Yes — it’s roughly double the median switcher’s outcome, and on a $65,000 salary it’s worth about $22,656 more than staying put over the following five years (assuming 3.5% annual raises after). It’s a modest result only if you were significantly underpaid or stepping into a much bigger role, where 15–20%+ is a reasonable target.
On pay alone, 5% on a $65,000 salary is $3,250 a year — about $271 a month — and roughly $5,228 more than staying over five years. Whether it’s worth it depends on what you give up: if switching means forfeiting a $5,000 bonus, the extra pay takes about 18.5 months to replace it. Factor in unvested benefits, commute and the role itself before deciding.
Sometimes — a better title, scope or location can pay off later. But price it honestly: in a year when inflation is 3.7%, a 0% change is a real-terms pay cut of about 3.6%. Take a sideways move for career reasons, not because the offer was framed to feel like a raise.
Subtract your current salary from the offer, divide by your current salary, and multiply by 100. An offer of $71,500 on a $65,000 salary is (71,500 − 65,000) ÷ 65,000 = 10%. The raise percentage calculator on this site does it instantly and shows the monthly difference too.
Usually yes on pay alone — 20% sits at the top of the 10–20% target range for someone paid below market, and inside the 15–25% range for a step up in scope. It is worth it only if the total package holds up: check any bonus you would forfeit, unvested retirement match or equity, and PTO, and compare the full packages side by side before you decide.
It depends on your salary, because the percentage is what matters. On the $65,000 example used on this page, $10,000 is about a 15% raise — well above the median switcher’s 4.7%. On a much higher salary the same $10,000 is a far smaller percentage. Run the offer through the percentage formula above, then weigh what you would give up by moving.
Sources
- Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Wage Growth Tracker — median wage growth for job switchers vs stayers, September 2026.
- ADP Research, ADP National Employment Report, September 2026 — Pay Insights: base and gross pay growth for job-changers vs job-stayers.
- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Price Index — CPI-U +3.7% for the 12 months ending September 2026, released October 14, 2026.
- Mercer, QuickPulse U.S. Compensation Planning Survey (October 2025) — 2026 salary budgets and the 8.7% average promotion increase, via our average raise percentage data hub.
Figures checked October 2026. This page is general information about pay and job offers, not financial or career advice for your specific situation.
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